TL;DR — Ofgem cut the price‑cap on 1 July, trimming a typical dual‑fuel, Direct‑Debit bill from £1,854 to £1,720 a year. Wholesale prices are at a three‑year low, and suppliers are jostling to win customers with sub‑20 p/kWh fixed deals, bundle‑and‑save solar offers. Use Switch Squid to see live quotes and lock‑in savings while demand is sky‑high.
1 | Price‑Cap Snapshot: What Changed on 1 July 2025?
| Quarter | Cap level (typical use) | Quarterly change | Annualised saving |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | £1,854 | – | – |
| Q3 2025 | £1,720 | ▼ £134 (‑7 %) | £11 / month |
Source: Ofgem price‑cap update, 23 May 2025.
The new cap applies 1 July – 30 September. It’s based on 11,500 kWh of gas and 2,700 kWh of electricity a year. Your own bill will vary with actual usage, region and payment method — but the direction of travel is clear: downwards.
Why the Cap Is Falling
-
Wholesale gas tumble — EU storage hit 77 % in June, easing winter risk premiums.
-
Record LNG imports — The UK landed 5 mt in Q2, double 2024’s average.
-
Mild spring demand — National Grid reports gas demand 9 % below the five‑year mean.
-
Strengthening pound — GBP ↗ 4 % vs USD since March, trimming dollar‑priced fuel costs.
Despite geopolitical jitters, forward markets price NBP gas at 65 p/therm for winter 25/26 — roughly half the 2022 crisis peak.
2 | Fix or Stay Variable? A Data‑Driven Decision
Reasons to Fix Now
-
New fixes as low as 18 p/kWh electric and 4.5 p/kWh gas (unit rates accurate on 15 July).
-
Cap projections: Cornwall Insight forecasts the cap will rise to £1,790 in Q1 2026.
-
Budget certainty — no mid‑winter bill shocks.
Reasons to Wait
-
Price‑cap is reviewed quarterly; if wholesale keeps sliding you’ll follow it down automatically.
-
Exit fees on fixes range £75‑£150 per fuel — a sting if you leave early.
-
Loyalty credits: some suppliers (e.g. So Energy) pay £75 for staying put.
Rule of thumb: if a 12‑month fix is ≥ 5 % cheaper than the current cap for your region, it’s worth a serious look.
➜ Compare personalised fixes on Switch Squid
3 | Trending Deals (Hot Right Now)
Top 3 Fixed‑Price Offers (Typical Medium‑Use Home, London G Post‑code)
| Rank | Tariff | Supplier | Term | Effective cost* | Notes |
| 🥇 1 | Green Fix Saver 12 | Octopus Energy | 12 mo | £1,640 | 100 % REGO‑backed electricity, no exit fee |
| 🥈 2 | Secure Fix v25 | EDF | 24 mo | £1,665 | Free smart‑meter install + £50 Tesco e‑gift |
| 🥉 3 | Value Fix | OVO Energy | 12 mo | £1,686 | £100 exit fee, 5 % loyalty interest credit |
*Cost calculated 15 July 2025 on standard medium‑use profile via Switch Squid comparison engine. Always double‑check live rates.
Solar‑and‑Battery Bundles
-
Octopus Flux Export — sells surplus at 15 p/kWh peak (4‑7 pm). Syncs with Octopus Go for cheap imports.
-
E.ON Solar & Storage — 12‑panel 4.8 kWp + 5 kWh battery fitted for £6,999 (after 0 % VAT) — finance at 2.9 % APR.
-
Good Energy SmartGen — pays SEG +7 p/kWh bonus if you export during National Grid Demand Flex events.
Pro tip: Use our solar calculator to check payback in your exact post‑code.
4 | Grants & Schemes You Can Claim Today
| Scheme | What you get | Who’s eligible | How to apply |
| ECO4 | Means‑tested insulation/heating upgrades up to £25k | Low‑income households | Contact approved installers via Ofgem’s ECO portal |
| Boiler Upgrade Scheme | £7,500 off air‑source heat pump | Homeowners in England & Wales | Apply through MCS‑certified installer |
| Home Upgrade Grant (HUG) Phase 2 | Avg £15k fabric + heat pump for off‑gas homes | EPC D‑G, income ≤ £31k | Local authority will outreach Sept 2025 |
| GBIS | £1,500‑£7,500 insulation | Council tax bands A‑D | Apply on gov.uk |
| 0 % VAT | Zero VAT on solar, batteries, heat pumps | All of Great Britain | Supplier invoices automatically at 0 % |
Full guidance: gov.uk/energy‑grants — always read terms.
6 | Forecast: Where Are Bills Heading Next?
| Cap period | Forecast (typical use) | Change vs current |
| Q4 2025 | £1,752 | ▲ £32 |
| Q1 2026 | £1,790 | ▲ £70 |
| Q2 2026 | £1,735 | ▼ £55 |
Source: Cornwall Insight base case, 10 July 2025.
Risks: A Baltic supply disruption could add 35 p/therm to winter gas, translating to ~£150 on the cap. Conversely, a mild winter and continued LNG oversupply could see Q2 2026 below £1,700.
7 | Viral 5‑Minute Bill‑Cutting Hacks (TikTok Approved)
-
Dial Down Flow Temp to 55 °C — saves avg £118/yr on combi boilers.
-
Draft‑Proof Letterbox & Keyholes — £20 kit, pays back in 3 months.
-
Smart‑Plug Kill Switches — Standby monsters like consoles = £50/yr.
-
Cold Wash Laundry — 30 °C cycle cuts washer energy 62 %.
-
Sun‑Dry Clothes — Ditch the tumble dryer in summer for £90/yr.
Need more ideas? Download our 50‑point Energy Detox checklist (PDF).
8 | Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Will the price‑cap ever return to 2020’s £1,042 level?
A: Unlikely in the next five years unless we see a structural oversupply of global LNG and rapid domestic renewables build‑out.
Q: Is it cheaper to pay by Direct Debit?
A: Yes — suppliers apply ~6 % DD discount vs pay‑on‑receipt tariffs.
Q: Do I need a smart meter to get a smart EV tariff?
A: 100 % yes. Half‑hourly data is mandatory for dynamic rates.
Q: Can tenants switch?
A: If the bill is in your name, you have the legal right to switch. Just inform the landlord.
9 | Next Steps — Lock in Your Best Deal (and Help the Planet)
-
Enter your post‑code on the Switch Squid comparison tool.
-
Filter by Fix length, Exit fee, Green score or Smart‑EV ready.
-
Switch in <5 minutes — our automated process handles meter reads and supplier comms.
-
Sit back while savings roll in — average successful switcher saved £263 last quarter.