When to Switch Energy in 2026: The £1,723 Cap Timeline

Last updated: Thursday 29 October 2026

In short: Ofgem’s cap for 1 October to 31 December 2026 is £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel home paying by Direct Debit, up from £1,663 for July to September (Ofgem, 26 August 2026). The question is when to switch: fix now if a quote clearly beats what you would pay on the capped rates once standing charges, your regional rates and exit fees are included; wait if nothing does, and compare again when Ofgem announces the next cap on 25 November 2026.

The £1,723 figure you are comparing against

For October to December 2026, the Great Britain Direct Debit averages are 26.32p/kWh and 54.83p a day for electricity, and 7.97p/kWh and 29.68p a day for gas (Ofgem unit rates and standing charges). Gas includes 5% VAT; household electricity carries 0% VAT from 1 October 2026 to 30 June 2027 (HMRC Notice 701/19).

Your bill is not the national average: your region, meter, payment method and real usage all change it. Use £1,723 as a benchmark, not as your bill.

What January could look like. Forecasts for January to March 2027 range from £1,999.28 (Cornwall Insight, 30 September 2026) to £2,185 (British Gas, 15 October 2026), with E.ON Next at £2,166 and uSwitch’s average of supplier forecasts at £2,154 (both 19 October 2026). That would be £276 to £462 a year above the current cap. These are forecasts, not Ofgem figures; Ofgem confirms the actual cap on 25 November 2026. If a fix for your postcode already beats your variable-tariff cost, you do not need to wait. See our January 2027 price cap forecast for the detail.

Switching timeline

Fix now or wait?

Fix now when a fixed dual-fuel quote costs less than the capped rates for the next 12 months, after exit fees, using your region’s rates or your own kWh. Wait when every fixed quote is within about £50 to £80 of your capped cost and you are comfortable with rates changing each quarter. Waiting for prices to fall only makes sense if you have compared recently.

Fixed prices change daily, so this guide does not list supplier prices. Check any deal against your postcode, usage and the date of the quote.

Standing charges and exit fees

Ofgem’s October to December averages put the electricity standing charge at 54.83p a day and gas at 29.68p a day. Two single-fuel fixes can look cheap on unit rates but cost more than one dual-fuel deal once both standing charges are added, or the reverse. Regional costs differ, so use your region’s rates or your latest statement.

Count exit fees on any current fix. A £75 exit fee to unlock a genuine £180 first-year saving makes sense; a £40 saving that ignores the fee does not. If your deal finishes within a few months, check your renewal notice before switching early.

Prepay, standard credit and Economy 7

£1,723 is the typical dual-fuel Direct Debit bill. Prepay, standard credit and Economy 7 have different typical figures. If you are on Economy 7, compare two-rate fixes and check how much you use at night: a cheap overnight rate only helps if your heating, hot water or EV actually run then. Our Economy 7 vs Octopus Go guide explains more.

A checklist before you decide

1. Have 12 months of kWh to hand.

2. Work out the capped cost at your usage, starting from Ofgem’s averages and then using your region’s rates.

3. Get at least three fixed dual-fuel quotes for the same usage and payment method.

4. Add any exit fees.

5. Check single-fuel options too.

6. Fix if the total for the first year is lower; if not, wait and note the next Ofgem date.

Have your latest annual statement or 12 monthly bills, current tariff name, payment method, meter type and any exit-fee terms ready. Using Ofgem’s typical 2,500 kWh and 9,500 kWh instead of your own usage can make a saving disappear once you move.

Keeping your home warm

The right tariff does not replace draught-proofing, radiator valves or a serviced boiler. As the heating comes on, a sensible thermostat schedule and bled radiators can save as much as a small difference in unit rates.

Heat pumps, EVs and single-fuel homes

Heat pump homes, EV owners charging overnight and Economy 7 homes do not fit the typical dual-fuel figures. Price electricity-only and gas-only fixes as well as dual-fuel deals, using your real usage pattern.

Already fixed?

If you fixed earlier at a good rate, there is no need to leave for a saving of £30 or so. If you are on a variable tariff and a quote clearly beats your capped cost, waiting can cost you money.

FAQ

When should I switch energy?

Switch when a fixed quote costs less than the capped rates at your usage once fees are included. If no quote does, wait and compare again after Ofgem announces the January 2027 cap on 25 November 2026.

What is the price cap for October to December 2026?

£1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel home paying by Direct Debit (Ofgem, 26 August 2026). It is a benchmark, not your bill.

Will the price cap go up in January 2027?

Forecasts made in September and October 2026 range from £1,999.28 (Cornwall Insight) to £2,185 (British Gas). They are forecasts; Ofgem announces the actual cap on 25 November 2026.

Should I wait for the January announcement before fixing?

Only if no fix beats your capped cost now. If a quote for your postcode already costs less, waiting will not help.

Does the VAT cut change when I should switch?

Not really. The 0% VAT on household electricity from 1 October 2026 to 30 June 2027 applies to variable and fixed tariffs alike, and Ofgem’s cap figures already include it.

I am on Economy 7. Does £1,723 apply to me?

No. £1,723 is a dual-fuel Direct Debit figure. Ofgem’s typical Economy 7 bill is different, so compare two-rate deals using your own day and night use.