Is Octopus Tracker worth it? October 2026 rates vs fixed deals and the £1,723 cap

Last updated: Tuesday 6 October 2026 (Europe/London).
Next update: when Ofgem announces the January–March 2027 price cap in late November 2026, or if Octopus changes the Tracker formula or ceiling.
By: Switch Editorial Team, Switch Squid Ltd

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As of 6 October 2026, Octopus Tracker is costing more than the price cap in most of Great Britain: London Tracker electricity was 31.90p per kWh on 5 October against an October 2026 capped average of 26.32p, and Tracker gas was about 9.5p against a capped 7.97p, because Tracker sits outside Ofgem’s £1,723 cap. Tracker can beat the cap in mild, low-wholesale months, but Octopus itself says prices can roughly double in colder months, so for most households heading into winter a fixed deal or the capped variable tariff is the safer place to be. SwitchSquid compares the options below; we may earn a commission if you switch through our links.

Sources: Octopus Energy — Octopus Tracker, Octopus Tracker FAQs, Ofgem — price cap 1 October to 31 December 2026 Octopus Energy’s public tariff prices for the Tracker April 2026 product and Energy Plus — Octopus Agile and Tracker prices by region.

What Octopus Tracker actually is

Octopus Tracker is a variable smart tariff for electricity and gas. Instead of a fixed unit rate, Octopus sets a new price every day using an independently published wholesale market price and a formula it publishes on its own website. The formula differs by region, because the cost of getting energy to homes in London is not the same as in North Wales or the north of Scotland. Because it is a smart tariff, you need a working smart meter that sends readings so you can be billed day by day.

The tariff runs on a 12-month term, and the daily rate moves up and down with the market throughout that time. There is one important safety net built in: Octopus applies its own ceiling, which it calls Price Cap Protect, of 100p per kWh for electricity and 30p per kWh for gas, including VAT. That ceiling is Octopus’s, not Ofgem’s, and it sits far above anything the regulator’s price cap allows. Octopus is upfront about this: it says that if you could not afford prices rising towards those levels, you are probably better off on a protected tariff such as its Flexible Octopus standard variable tariff.

That leads to the one fact that matters most when deciding whether Tracker is worth it. It is not covered by the Ofgem energy price cap. The cap protects default tariffs such as standard variable tariffs. Tracker follows the wholesale market instead, which means it can sit well below the cap for long stretches and then rise above it when wholesale prices climb.

How Tracker compared with the cap from April to October 2026

We took Octopus’s published daily Tracker rates for London (the Tracker April 2026 product, paid by Direct Debit, including VAT) and averaged them for each month. Comparing those averages with Ofgem’s capped average rates for the same months shows the pattern clearly.

Through the spring and early summer, Tracker was the cheaper option. London Tracker electricity averaged 21.52p per kWh in April, 24.50p in May and 23.74p in June, and gas averaged between 6.82p and 7.09p per kWh over those three months. In July, electricity averaged 24.84p against a capped average of 26.11p, and gas averaged 7.60p against 7.33p, so electricity was still a little cheaper and gas was already slightly dearer.

From August the picture flipped. London Tracker electricity averaged 27.80p in August and 28.56p in September, both above the July–September capped average of 26.11p. Gas averaged 8.43p in August and 9.80p in September, compared with a capped 7.33p. In the first five days of October, electricity averaged 29.57p and gas 9.44p, against new capped averages of 26.32p and 7.97p. On 5 October the London electricity rate was 31.90p.

Day-to-day swings were wide too. In September alone, London Tracker electricity ranged from 13.87p to 37.16p per kWh. If you are the kind of person who checks the app and shifts the washing to cheaper days, that variation can work for you. If you would rather not think about it, it is mostly a source of uncertainty.

Converted into a year, the gap is noticeable. Energy Plus, which tracks Octopus prices by region, put a typical London home at about £1,962 a year at 5 October Tracker rates, compared with about £1,706 at the London October cap level. Those are annualised snapshots, not forecasts, but they show how quickly Tracker can move from cheaper to dearer.

Octopus Tracker vs fixed vs the capped variable tariff (checked 6 October 2026)

Option	How the price is set	Protection	Position in early October 2026	Best for	Main catch
Octopus Tracker	New price every day from a published wholesale formula, by region	Octopus ceiling of 100p/kWh electricity and 30p/kWh gas; not covered by the Ofgem cap	London electricity 31.90p and gas about 9.5p on 5 October, above the capped averages	Households who can absorb winter spikes and want to benefit when wholesale prices fall	Can be well above the cap for weeks at a time, especially in colder months
Standard variable tariff (price cap)	Supplier price limited by Ofgem’s cap, reset every three months	Ofgem price cap on unit rates and standing charges	£1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel Direct Debit home; 26.32p electricity and 7.97p gas on average	People who want regulated protection without signing up to a fixed term	Rises when the cap rises; suppliers have predicted a higher cap from January 2027
Fixed tariff	Unit rates and standing charges agreed for the term	Your rates are fixed for the length of the deal	Personalised to your postcode and usage; compare against £1,723	Households that want a known price through winter	Possible exit fees, and you will not benefit if prices fall
Octopus Agile	Half-hourly prices linked to the wholesale market	Not covered by the Ofgem cap; check Octopus’s Agile terms	Can be very cheap overnight and much dearer in the early-evening peak	Homes that can shift large loads such as an electric car or battery	Needs active management to pay off

Ofgem’s typical household figures assume 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas a year. If your home uses more gas than that, the gas gap matters more than the electricity gap. Remember that the Ofgem rates in the table are national averages: your regional capped rates, and your regional Tracker rates, will be a little different.

When Octopus Tracker is worth it

Tracker tends to work for households with a bit of financial breathing room and a long view. It has historically done well in spring and summer, when wholesale prices usually soften. If you can carry the occasional expensive week in winter and you are happy to stay on it through the cheaper months, it can come out ahead over a full year. Whether it does depends on what the wholesale market does next, and nobody can promise that.

It also suits people who are engaged with their energy use. Checking the daily rate in the app and running the dishwasher or tumble dryer on cheaper days does make a difference on a tariff that changes every day. Homes that use relatively little gas, such as well-insulated flats or homes with a heat pump on a separate electricity tariff, are less exposed to the gas side of Tracker’s winter rise.

When a fixed deal or the cap is the better choice

For most households going into winter 2026, the case for Tracker is weaker. Tracker rates in London have been above the capped averages since August, and Octopus’s own guidance is that prices typically increase, likely doubling, in colder months compared with warmer ones. The current cap runs only until 31 December. Ofgem will announce the January–March 2027 level in late November, and the big suppliers’ published predictions have pointed to a higher figure, which is a prediction rather than a certainty.

If you rely on a predictable bill, have a large gas demand from older radiators or a large house, or are on a tight monthly budget, a fixed tariff that comes in at or below the cap gives you certainty through the most expensive months. If no fixed deal beats the cap for your postcode, the capped standard variable tariff still gives you Ofgem’s protection without locking you in. Our should I fix my energy deal guide walks through that choice in more detail.

Tracker vs Agile: which Octopus variable tariff fits

People often weigh up Tracker and Agile together because both follow the wholesale market. The difference is the time slice. Tracker sets one electricity price and one gas price for the whole day. Agile is electricity only and changes every half hour, so it can be extremely cheap overnight and expensive in the early-evening peak. If you can move big loads, such as charging an electric car or a home battery, to the cheapest half hours, Agile gives you more to work with. If you just want a wholesale-linked price without planning your day around it, Tracker is simpler. Our Octopus Agile guide covers half-hourly pricing, and our Economy 7 vs Octopus Go guide covers fixed off-peak windows.

How to decide in five minutes

1. Find your usage. Look at your last annual statement or your app for yearly kWh of electricity and gas.
2. Check today’s regional Tracker rate. Octopus shows it on its Tracker page and in its app; compare it with your regional capped rate from Ofgem.
3. Get personalised fixed quotes. Compare the total yearly cost of fixed tariffs for your postcode against the £1,723 cap benchmark and against what you pay now.
4. Check exit terms. Look at exit fees on any fixed deal and the notice terms on Tracker before you commit.
5. Decide on risk. If a winter bill above the cap would cause real difficulty, favour a fixed deal or the capped tariff over Tracker.

Fit summary

• Good for Tracker: households with savings to absorb winter peaks, people who engage with daily prices, low-gas homes, and those happy to stay on through spring and summer.
• Consider a fixed deal instead: anyone who needs a predictable bill this winter, high gas users, and households worried about a higher cap from January 2027.
• Consider staying on the capped tariff: if no fixed deal beats the cap for your postcode and you want to keep your options open.

Important conditions

• Tracker rates quoted here are London rates from Octopus’s published prices, including VAT, checked on 6 October 2026. Rates in your region will differ and change daily.
• Electricity carries no VAT from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027, so earlier electricity figures include VAT and later ones do not.
• Octopus may change the Tracker formula or ceiling with reasonable notice.
• Fixed tariff prices depend on your postcode, meter and usage; always compare the full yearly cost, including standing charges.
• Comparison results may not include every tariff on the market, including some smart tariffs.
• We may earn a commission if you switch through our links.

Final decision card

Comfortable with winter spikes and happy to stay on through summer → Tracker can still make sense.
Want a known bill through winter → compare fixed tariffs and choose one at or below the £1,723 cap benchmark.
No fixed deal beats the cap for you → stay on the capped tariff and check again when Ofgem announces the January cap.

FAQ

Is Octopus Tracker cheaper than the price cap right now?

Not in most regions in early October 2026. On 5 October, London Tracker electricity was 31.90p per kWh and gas about 9.5p, compared with October capped averages of 26.32p and 7.97p. Tracker was cheaper than the cap through spring and early summer, but rates have been higher since August.

Is Octopus Tracker covered by the Ofgem price cap?

No. Tracker is a smart tariff that follows wholesale prices, so it sits outside the default tariff cap. Octopus applies its own ceiling of 100p per kWh for electricity and 30p per kWh for gas, which is far higher than the Ofgem cap.

Does Octopus Tracker go up in winter?

It usually does, because wholesale prices tend to rise in colder months. Octopus says Tracker prices are typically lower in warmer months and then increase, likely doubling, in colder ones. In London, Tracker gas averaged 6.82p per kWh in June and 9.80p in September.

Do I need a smart meter for Octopus Tracker?

Yes. Tracker charges a different price each day, so your supplier needs regular smart meter readings to bill you accurately. If you do not have a working smart meter, you would need one installed first.

What is the difference between Octopus Tracker and Agile?

Tracker sets one daily price for electricity and one for gas. Agile is electricity only and changes every half hour, so it rewards moving usage to cheap overnight slots. Tracker is simpler if you do not want to plan your day around prices.

Should I fix my energy instead of going on Tracker this winter?

If you need a predictable bill through winter, a fixed tariff at or below the £1,723 cap benchmark is usually the safer choice. Tracker suits people who can absorb higher weeks in winter and want to benefit from lower prices in spring and summer. Compare the full yearly cost for your own postcode before deciding.

Can I leave Octopus Tracker if prices rise?

Tracker is a variable tariff on a 12-month term, so check the current notice and exit terms on Octopus’s own Tracker page before you join. Any fixed tariff you move to may have its own exit fees. Plan the switch before the most expensive months rather than during them.