As of 19 October 2026, Octopus 18M Fixed works out at about £1,881 a year for a typical home paying by Direct Debit, and Octopus 12M Fixed at about £1,949. Both are above today's £1,723 price cap but below every January 2027 cap forecast we track, which run from £1,999 (Cornwall Insight) to £2,185 (British Gas). Octopus re-priced both fixes on 17 October. On our numbers the 18-month fix rose by about £89 a year and the 12-month fix by about £49. So fixed prices are rising as the January forecasts rise, and the gap between the two is getting smaller.
SwitchSquid has worked out what each Octopus fix costs in every region and compared them with the cap and the forecasts. Below we explain when a fix is worth it, and what the exit fees mean if you change your mind.
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Octopus fixed tariffs at a glance
Tariff (version from 17 October 2026) | Typical yearly cost* | Fixed for | Exit fee | Compared with today's £1,723 cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Octopus 18M Fixed | about £1,881 | 18 months | £75 per fuel | about £158 a year more |
Octopus 12M Fixed | about £1,949 | 12 months | £50 per fuel | about £226 a year more |
Standard variable (Ofgem cap, 1 October to 31 December 2026) | £1,723 | Changes every quarter | None | n/a |
*Our average of Octopus's published Direct Debit rates across its 14 regions. It uses typical use of 2,500kWh of electricity and 9,500kWh of gas a year, the figures Ofgem's cap uses, and includes VAT. It is not a quote: your price depends on your region, meter and usage.
The average 18-month rates are about 28.26p per kWh for electricity with a 53.76p daily standing charge, and about 9.19p per kWh for gas with a 28.72p daily standing charge. The 12-month fix has the same standing charges but higher unit rates: about 30.59p for electricity and 9.30p for gas. Ofgem's October to December averages for Direct Debit are 26.32p and 54.83p a day for electricity, and 7.97p and 29.68p a day for gas. So today, both fixes cost more per unit than the cap.
What changed on 17 October
Octopus publishes its tariffs through a public price list. The current versions of both fixes went on sale on 17 October 2026, replacing the ones launched earlier in October. Using the same method, the earlier 18-month fix averaged about £1,792 a year and the earlier 12-month fix about £1,900. That means a rise of about £89 a year on the 18-month fix and about £49 on the 12-month fix.
The likely cause is the same one pushing the January forecasts up. Cornwall Insight says its forecast rise is largely driven by the conflict in the Middle East disrupting gas supplies, with EU gas storage at its lowest September level in 15 years. Fixed prices follow the wholesale market every day, while the cap only moves every three months. Octopus fixes can change again before Ofgem's announcement. If a fix suits you, the price you see today is the one that counts, not the one you saw last week.
January 2027 forecasts against today's fixes
Ofgem will announce the January to March 2027 cap by 25 November 2026. Until then these are the forecasts, and each one is dated because they move:
Forecast for January to March 2027 | Typical yearly figure | Octopus 18M Fixed (about £1,881) against it | Octopus 12M Fixed (about £1,949) against it |
|---|---|---|---|
Cornwall Insight (30 September 2026) | £1,999 | about £118 a year less | about £50 a year less |
uSwitch average of British Gas, EDF and E.ON Next (as of 13 October 2026) | £2,098 | about £217 a year less | about £149 a year less |
E.ON Next (checked 19 October 2026) | £2,130 | about £249 a year less | about £181 a year less |
British Gas (updated 15 October 2026) | £2,185 | about £304 a year less | about £236 a year less |
These are yearly rates, not a bill for one quarter. A January cap rise only applies from 1 January, and Ofgem sets a new cap again from 1 April. British Gas forecasts £2,190 for April and E.ON Next £2,211, so the forecasts do not show a fall in the spring. Both suppliers rate their own forecasts beyond January as low or very low confidence, so treat them as a guide, not a promise.
Here is the trade-off in plain terms. If you fix today, you pay more than the cap from now until 31 December: at about £158 a year above the cap, that is very roughly £40 over the quarter on the 18-month fix. From January, if the cap lands anywhere in the forecast range, the fix costs less. For every quarter the cap stays at the uSwitch average, the 18-month fix saves very roughly £54. Real bills are higher in winter, so these quarterly figures are only a rough guide.
Prices by region
Octopus prices each fix by region, so the national average hides a gap of more than £100 between the cheapest and dearest areas. Our averages for typical use, including VAT, are below:
Region | Octopus 18M Fixed (a year) | Octopus 12M Fixed (a year) |
|---|---|---|
Eastern England | £1,861 | £1,919 |
East Midlands | £1,831 | £1,886 |
London | £1,848 | £1,916 |
Merseyside and North Wales | £1,938 | £2,053 |
West Midlands | £1,864 | £1,927 |
North East | £1,878 | £1,946 |
North West | £1,858 | £1,919 |
Southern | £1,886 | £1,941 |
South East | £1,892 | £1,956 |
South Wales | £1,902 | £1,974 |
South West | £1,919 | £1,986 |
Yorkshire | £1,859 | £1,952 |
South Scotland | £1,885 | £1,961 |
North Scotland | £1,916 | £1,950 |
East Midlands is the cheapest region for both fixes, and Merseyside and North Wales the most expensive. Your own figure will differ if you use more or less energy than the typical home, or have a meter type Octopus prices differently.
12-month or 18-month: which suits you?
Octopus 18M Fixed is cheaper per year at about £1,881, and it covers both the January and April cap periods. That suits you if you heat with gas and want to know your unit rates until spring 2028. The exit fee is higher, at £75 per fuel or £150 for dual fuel.
Octopus 12M Fixed costs about £68 a year more at about £1,949, but it ends sooner and has a lower exit fee of £50 per fuel. That suits you if you expect prices to fall in late 2027 and want to shop again sooner.
Staying on the standard variable tariff is cheapest until 31 December, with no exit fee. It only stays cheaper if January's cap comes in close to today's £1,723, and none of the forecasts above suggest that.
Important conditions
A fix locks your unit rates and standing charges, not your bill. If you use more energy in a cold winter, you still pay more.
Exit fees apply if you leave early: £75 per fuel on the 18-month fix and £50 per fuel on the 12-month fix. Suppliers generally can't charge exit fees in the last 49 days of a fixed term.
VAT on qualifying household electricity is 0% from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027 under HMRC's temporary zero rate. Gas stays at 5%. Our averages use those rates. From 1 April 2027 electricity VAT goes back to 5% unless the government extends the zero rate, which would add a little to any fix's electricity cost.
Forecasts are not Ofgem figures. The real January cap could land below or above the range.
How to compare fixes for your home
Find your yearly usage in kWh on your latest bill or in your supplier's app.
Note your current tariff, its end date and any exit fee.
Get quotes for fixed deals at your postcode, and compare each one's yearly cost with the Octopus figures above for your region.
Check the exit fee and the fixed term on each quote before you choose.
If you switch, take a meter reading on the switch date and keep it.
Switching is free and usually takes about five working days. Your supply won't be cut off while it happens. Our January 2027 price cap forecast guide tracks each forecast as it changes, and our tracker vs fixed guide compares fixes with below-cap trackers.
Our view
Octopus's 17 October repricing shows what usually happens before a cap rise: fixed prices move up first. At about £1,881 a year, Octopus 18M Fixed costs more than the cap until Christmas, but less than every January forecast, from £1,999 to £2,185. If you heat with gas and want certainty through two cap periods, fixing now has a stronger case than waiting. That only holds if a quote for your postcode comes in close to these figures once exit fees are counted. If nothing beats your current deal, wait for Ofgem's figure on 25 November.
Figures checked on 19 October 2026. Tariff prices can change daily, so check your quote before you switch.
FAQ
How much is the Octopus 18-month fixed tariff?
As of 19 October 2026, our average of Octopus's published Direct Debit rates for 18M Fixed is about £1,881 a year for typical use. That ranges from about £1,831 in the East Midlands to £1,938 in Merseyside and North Wales. It has a £75 exit fee per fuel.
Did Octopus put its fixed prices up?
Yes. New versions of Octopus 12M Fixed and 18M Fixed went on sale on 17 October 2026. On our calculations the 18-month fix rose from about £1,792 to about £1,881 a year, and the 12-month fix from about £1,900 to about £1,949.
Is an Octopus fix cheaper than the price cap?
Not right now. Both fixes cost more than today's £1,723 cap, which runs until 31 December 2026. They would cost less from January if the cap rises to anything in the current forecast range of £1,999 to £2,185.
What will the energy price cap be in January 2027?
Ofgem will announce it by 25 November 2026. Forecasts range from £1,999 (Cornwall Insight, 30 September) to £2,185 (British Gas, updated 15 October). E.ON Next forecasts £2,130, and uSwitch's average of supplier forecasts is £2,098 as of 13 October.
What are the exit fees on Octopus fixed tariffs?
Octopus 18M Fixed has a £75 exit fee per fuel, so £150 for gas and electricity. Octopus 12M Fixed has a £50 exit fee per fuel, so £100 for dual fuel. Check the fee on your own quote before you sign up.
Should I fix my energy before January 2027?
If you heat with gas and a fix for your postcode costs about the same as the figures here, fixing protects you from every January forecast we track. You will pay more than the cap until 31 December. If no fix beats your current deal once exit fees are counted, waiting for Ofgem's 25 November announcement is reasonable.
Does the 0% VAT on electricity affect fixed tariffs?
Yes. Qualifying household electricity carries 0% VAT from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027 on fixed and variable tariffs alike. Gas stays at 5%. The averages here include those rates.
Sources: Octopus Energy public tariff data for OE-FIX-18M-26-10-17 and OE-FIX-12M-26-10-17 (checked 19 October 2026); Ofgem energy price cap, 1 October to 31 December 2026; Cornwall Insight press release, 30 September 2026; British Gas price cap forecast, updated 15 October 2026; E.ON Next price cap predictions; uSwitch price cap guide (forecasts as of 13 October 2026); HMRC Revenue and Customs Brief 10 (2026).
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