Energy price cap January 2027 forecast: £1,999–£2,074, fix now?

Last updated: Tuesday 6 October 2026 (Europe/London).
Next update: when Ofgem announces the January–March 2027 cap (due by 25 November 2026), or sooner if the main forecasts move.
By: Switch Editorial Team, Switch Squid Ltd

As of 6 October 2026, the price cap is £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel home paying by Direct Debit, and every major forecast says it will rise in January 2027 to somewhere between £1,999 and £2,074. That's £276 to £351 more a year, or roughly £23 to £29 a month, for a typical home. Ofgem will confirm the real figure by 25 November 2026, and the new rates apply from 1 January. A fixed deal priced near today's cap would currently undercut every January forecast, but only if your own quote beats it once you add exit fees and your actual usage. These are forecasts, not Ofgem figures. The typical-use benchmark is 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas a year. Compare buttons on this page go to MoneySuperMarket's home energy comparison, and we may earn a commission if you switch through them.

The short version

• Today (1 October – 31 December 2026): £1,723 a year typical, Direct Debit, dual fuel. Electricity 26.32p/kWh plus 54.83p a day; gas 7.97p/kWh plus 29.68p a day (national averages).
• January–March 2027 forecasts: Cornwall Insight £1,999.28 (30 September), E.ON Next £2,065 (28 September), and the uSwitch average of British Gas, EDF and E.ON Next forecasts at £2,074 (1 October).
• Ofgem's decision: by 25 November 2026. The wholesale prices it uses are collected from 19 August to mid-November, so about half of January's cost is already counted.
• What to do: get a quote for your postcode now. If a fixed deal comes in at or below your current standard variable bill once exit fees are included, fixing before the January rise is the low-regret move. If nothing beats it, a cap-tracking tariff or staying put until 25 November are both reasonable.

January 2027 price cap forecasts, side by side

We only list forecasts we could check against the publisher's own page. Every one is dated, because these numbers move every week as wholesale gas prices change.

Forecaster	Date of forecast	January–March 2027 (typical, Direct Debit)	Change vs £1,723 today	Notes
Cornwall Insight	30 September 2026	£1,999.28	+£276 (+16%)	Electricity £959.44 + gas £1,039.84
E.ON Next	28 September 2026	£2,065	+£342 (+20%)	E.ON Next rates its own confidence as "low"
uSwitch (average of British Gas, EDF and E.ON Next)	As of 1 October 2026	£2,074	+£351 (+20%)	uSwitch also shows £2,047 for April–June 2027
Ofgem (official)	Due by 25 November 2026	To be confirmed	—	Applies from 1 January 2027

Cornwall Insight is the lowest of the three and the most widely quoted. Its forecast unit rates are 30.28p/kWh for electricity with a standing charge of about 55p a day, and 9.76p/kWh for gas with a standing charge of about 31p a day. Compared with October, that's roughly 15% more per unit of electricity and about 22% more per unit of gas. Gas is doing most of the damage, which matters if you heat your home with a gas boiler, because January to March is when you burn most of it.

Why the cap is forecast to rise in January

Ofgem doesn't guess the cap. It sets the wholesale part from what energy actually cost during a fixed "observation window". For the January–March 2027 cap, that window runs from 19 August to mid-November 2026 (uSwitch lists 17 November as the last day). Cornwall Insight said on 30 September that the window was "nearly halfway through", and that September's price rises are "already locked in, making a January increase all but certain".

Cornwall puts the cause down to the conflict in the Middle East disrupting gas supplies, which has left EU gas storage at its lowest September level in 15 years. Even if wholesale prices calmed down tomorrow, the high prices already recorded in the window would still feed into January's cap.

Two dates could still shift the picture before Ofgem decides:

1. The Budget on Wednesday 28 October 2026. Cornwall Insight notes the Government could offer more household support on top of the electricity VAT cut. Nothing has been announced, so don't plan around it.
2. The rest of the observation window, up to mid-November. If wholesale gas falls sharply, January's cap could come in nearer the bottom of the range. If it climbs, the forecasts will go up.

Fix or stay on the cap? Your bill under each forecast

This is the comparison most people actually need. It puts the standard variable tariff (the capped rate) next to two kinds of alternative: a tariff that tracks the cap at a small discount, and a fixed deal at roughly today's prices. All figures are typical annual bills, so you can compare like with like. Your quote will differ by region, meter and how much energy you use.

Scenario (typical dual fuel, Direct Debit)	Standard variable (price cap)	Cap-tracking tariff (about £50 below the cap)	Fixed deal around today's price (about £1,727)	Fixed deal vs the cap
Today: 1 Oct – 31 Dec 2026 (Ofgem)	£1,723	about £1,673	about £1,727	Fix costs about £4 more
January 2027: Cornwall Insight (30 Sep)	£1,999	about £1,949	about £1,727	Fix saves about £272 a year
January 2027: E.ON Next (28 Sep)	£2,065	about £2,015	about £1,727	Fix saves about £338 a year
January 2027: uSwitch average (1 Oct)	£2,074	about £2,024	about £1,727	Fix saves about £347 a year
April–June 2027: uSwitch average (1 Oct)	£2,047	about £1,997	about £1,727	Fix saves about £320 a year

How to read this table. The figures show what each rate would cost over a full year. They aren't what you'd actually pay in one quarter. A cap rise only affects the months it covers, so if January's cap is £2,065 you pay the extra for January to March, then whatever Ofgem sets in April. As a rough guide, the January rise adds around £70 to £90 to a typical home's bill for January to March on a flat yearly average. In practice it's likely to be more, because winter is when you use the most gas.

Where the example rates come from. The cap-tracking column is based on E.ON Next Pledge, which E.ON Next says is always priced below the Ofgem cap. It's worth about £50 a year for a typical home (£25 per fuel), there's a £25 exit fee per fuel if you leave for another supplier, and it needs Direct Debit and a smart meter where possible. The fixed column is based on Octopus 18M Fixed (launched 2 October 2026). We worked out its published rates at typical usage for each of the 14 regions and averaged them: about £1,727 a year, ranging from roughly £1,666 to £1,822 depending on region, with a £75 exit fee per fuel. That's our own average, not a quote. Use your postcode to see what applies to your home.

Who should fix before January, and who can wait

Fix now if:

• You're on a standard variable tariff, you use gas heating, and a quote for your postcode comes in at or below your current bill. Every January forecast puts the cap well above today's fixed prices.
• You'd rather know your bill for the whole winter than follow forecasts week to week.
• Your current fixed deal finishes between now and February. Most suppliers let you switch without an exit fee in the last 49 days of a fixed term, so check your dates.

Think about a cap-tracking tariff if:

• You'd like a guaranteed discount on the cap but don't want to be locked into a price if wholesale costs fall back in spring. A tracker still goes up in January. It just stays a little below the cap.

It's reasonable to wait for 25 November if:

• No quote for your postcode beats your current bill once exit fees are included.
• You use little gas (for example in an all-electric flat), so the gas-driven rise hits you less.
• You're already fixed into 2027 at a rate below about 26p/kWh for electricity and 8p/kWh for gas. In that case, do nothing because of the cap.

One honest caveat: fixed prices can rise before Ofgem's announcement too. Suppliers price new fixes from the same wholesale market. Some forecasts also have the cap falling later in 2027 (E.ON Next currently shows £1,885 for July 2027, at its "lowest" confidence level), so a long fix isn't guaranteed to win every month. The point of fixing is certainty over the winter, not beating every future cap.

Check this before you switch

1. Your current tariff and end date. Your bill or app will say whether you're on a standard variable tariff or a fixed deal, and when the fix finishes.
2. Your actual yearly usage in kWh. It's on your annual statement. Using your own figures instead of the typical 2,500 / 9,500 kWh gives you far better quotes.
3. Exit fees on both sides. What you'd pay to leave now, and what the new deal charges if you leave early.
4. Standing charges. A low unit rate with a high daily charge can cost more in a small home. See our standing charge guide.
5. Electricity VAT. Electricity VAT is 0% from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027, and it applies to fixed and variable tariffs alike. If it goes back to 5% from April (unless the Government extends the cut), a typical electricity bill goes up by roughly £40 to £45 a year whichever tariff you're on. More detail is in our electricity VAT cut guide.
6. Your meter type. Economy 7, prepayment and smart meters all change which deals you can get, so make sure the comparison knows which one you have.

How we put this guide together

We checked every figure on this page against the publisher's own website on 6 October 2026: Ofgem for the current cap and its timetable, Cornwall Insight's press release of 30 September for its forecast and unit rates, uSwitch's price cap guide (updated 1 October) for its supplier average, and E.ON Next's predictions page (as of 28 September). We worked out the Octopus 18M Fixed figure ourselves from the tariff rates Octopus publishes. We left out any forecast we couldn't trace back to its original source. Switch Squid is a comparison site. We're not Ofgem, Cornwall Insight or an energy supplier, and nothing here is personal financial advice.

For background, read our October 2026 price cap explainer, when to switch energy this autumn, the cheapest fixed energy deals for October, fixed versus standard variable and energy exit fees. This guide covers home energy only. Business energy isn't covered by the price cap.

FAQ

What will the energy price cap be in January 2027?

Nobody knows yet. Ofgem will announce it by 25 November 2026. As of 6 October, forecasts for a typical dual-fuel home paying by Direct Debit range from £1,999.28 (Cornwall Insight, 30 September) to £2,065 (E.ON Next, 28 September) and £2,074 (uSwitch's average of supplier forecasts, 1 October). That compares with £1,723 today.

When will Ofgem announce the January 2027 price cap?

By 25 November 2026. The new cap applies from 1 January to 31 March 2027. Ofgem's next announcements are due by 23 February 2027 (for April–June) and 26 May 2027 (for July–September).

How much more will I pay in January?

On a typical home, the forecasts add £276 to £351 a year, or roughly £23 to £29 a month when spread across a year. Because the cap is a limit on unit rates and standing charges, not on your total bill, homes that use a lot of gas will notice it most over January to March.

Should I fix my energy before January 2027?

If a fixed deal for your postcode costs the same as or less than your current standard variable bill once exit fees are included, fixing now protects you from every January forecast we've seen. If nothing beats your current bill, a cap-tracking tariff or waiting for Ofgem's 25 November announcement are both sensible. Fixed prices can move before then too.

Is the price cap a cap on my total bill?

No. It caps the unit rate and the daily standing charge on standard variable tariffs. The £1,723 figure is what a typical home using 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas would pay. If you use more, you pay more.

Does the price cap affect me if I'm on a fixed deal?

Your fixed unit rates and standing charges don't change when the cap does. Tax changes still apply, though. The 0% VAT on electricity from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027 is passed on to fixed customers automatically.

Why are forecasts different from each other?

Each forecaster makes its own assumptions about wholesale prices for the rest of the observation window (up to mid-November) and about suppliers' other costs. They also publish on different days, and gas prices have been moving quickly. That's why we put a date next to every figure.

Will the price cap come down later in 2027?

It might. As of 1 October, uSwitch's average shows £2,047 for April–June 2027. E.ON Next shows £2,082 for April and £1,885 for July, at its lowest confidence level. Treat anything beyond January as a rough guide only.

Sources

• Ofgem, "Changes to energy price cap between 1 October and 31 December 2026" (26 August 2026): https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/news/changes-energy-price-cap-between-1-october-and-31-december-2026
• Ofgem, "Energy price cap and standing charges explained": https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/information-consumers/energy-advice-households/energy-price-cap
• Cornwall Insight, "16% Price Cap Rise Forecast in January" (30 September 2026): https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press-releases/16-price-cap-rise-forecast-in-january/
• uSwitch, "Energy price cap" guide (updated 1 October 2026): https://www.uswitch.com/gas-electricity/guides/price-cap/
• E.ON Next, "Energy price cap predictions" (as of 28 September 2026): https://www.eonnext.com/electricity-and-gas/price-cap/predictions
• E.ON Next, "Next Pledge" tariff: https://www.eonnext.com/tariffs/next-pledge
• Octopus Energy, published tariff rates for Octopus 18M Fixed (OE-FIX-18M-26-10-02): https://api.octopus.energy/v1/products/OE-FIX-18M-26-10-02/
• HM Treasury, Budget date confirmation (31 July 2026): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/chancellor-letter-to-the-treasury-select-committee-tsc-budget-2026-date

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