Tracker vs fixed energy below the price cap (October 2026)

Last updated: Friday 9 October 2026 (Europe/London).
Next update: when Ofgem announces the January–March 2027 cap (due by 25 November 2026), or sooner if these tariffs change.
By: Switch Editorial Team, Switch Squid Ltd

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As of 9 October 2026, the two home energy tariffs guaranteed to sit below Ofgem’s price cap are E.ON Next Pledge (about £50 a year below at average use) and British Gas’s Fixed Tracker (up to £60 a year less), while a widely available fix we can price from published rates, Octopus 18M Fixed, averages about £1,789 a year, £66 above today’s £1,723 cap but under every January 2027 forecast. A tracker wins if the cap stays flat or falls; a fix wins if January’s cap lands anywhere near the £1,999 to £2,084 forecasts.

This guide is for households on a standard variable tariff, or coming off a fix, who want to know which way to jump before winter. SwitchSquid compares prices; we don’t sell energy. The buttons open MoneySuperMarket’s home energy comparison, and we may earn a commission if you switch through them. It doesn’t change your price.

Offer facts (checked 9 October 2026)

We checked each figure on the supplier’s own website or published rates on 9 October 2026. Prices are for a typical home using 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas a year, paying by Direct Debit.

• Ofgem price cap: £1,723 a year from 1 October to 31 December 2026. Average rates are 26.32p/kWh for electricity plus 54.83p a day, and 7.97p/kWh for gas plus 29.68p a day.
• E.ON Next Pledge: a 12-month fixed-term tracker. E.ON Next says its rates are always below the cap, saving £50 a year at average use (£25 per fuel). No fee to move to another E.ON Next tariff; £25 per fuel to leave for another supplier. Direct Debit and a smart meter where possible.
• British Gas Fixed Tracker: prices track the Ofgem cap, and British Gas says you’re guaranteed to pay up to £60 less. Check the term and any exit fees on British Gas’s page before you sign.
• Octopus 18M Fixed: re-priced on 9 October 2026. Our average of Octopus’s published Direct Debit rates across 14 regions is about £1,789 a year (roughly £1,728 to £1,859 by region), fixed for 18 months, with a £75 exit fee per fuel. Octopus 12M Fixed averages about £1,896.
• January 2027 forecasts: Cornwall Insight £1,999.28 (30 September); uSwitch’s average of British Gas, EDF and E.ON Next predictions £2,084 for January–March and £2,074 for April–June (as of 8 October). Ofgem confirms the real figure by 25 November 2026.

Energy tariff below the price cap: how trackers work

A below-cap tracker doesn’t freeze your price. Its unit rates follow the Ofgem cap every quarter, minus a fixed discount. So when the cap goes up in January, a tracker goes up with it; when the cap falls, the tracker falls too. What you’re buying is a guarantee that you’ll never pay more than a standard variable tariff, plus a small saving.

E.ON Next Pledge takes £25 per fuel off the unit rates at average use, which is how it reaches about £50 a year. British Gas’s Fixed Tracker promises up to £60 a year less. Because both discounts come off unit rates or are measured at typical use, a low-use flat will save less than the headline and a large family home may save a little more. Neither supplier quotes a total yearly bill, because it moves with the cap, so we don’t either.

Fixed vs tracker for January 2027: the side-by-side

This is the comparison most people need. It shows a typical home’s yearly cost on the standard variable tariff, on a below-cap tracker and on an 18-month fix under today’s cap and under each January forecast. The tracker column uses E.ON Next’s £50 figure; British Gas’s Fixed Tracker would be up to £10 a year cheaper again. All figures are annualised so you can compare like with like.

Scenario (typical dual fuel, Direct Debit)	Standard variable (cap)	Below-cap tracker (about £50 under)	Octopus 18M Fixed (about £1,789)	Fix vs tracker
Today: 1 Oct – 31 Dec 2026 (Ofgem)	£1,723	about £1,673	about £1,789	Tracker cheaper by about £116
January 2027: Cornwall Insight (30 Sep)	£1,999	about £1,949	about £1,789	Fix cheaper by about £160
January 2027: uSwitch average (8 Oct)	£2,084	about £2,034	about £1,789	Fix cheaper by about £245
April–June 2027: uSwitch average (8 Oct)	£2,074	about £2,024	about £1,789	Fix cheaper by about £235

How to read it. Each row is a yearly rate, not what you’ll pay in one quarter. If the January cap lands at £2,084, the gap only applies from January onwards; October to December you’d pay less on the tracker. Roughly speaking, the tracker’s head start this quarter is about £29 (a quarter of £116), and the fix pulls ahead by about £40 to £60 a quarter from January if the forecasts are right. Over 18 months, the fix comes out ahead in every forecast scenario we track, but only if the cap really does rise and stays up.

Fit summary

Good for a below-cap tracker: people who think prices may ease in spring, want a guaranteed discount on the standard variable rate, and would rather not be locked into a price. Also good for low-gas homes, which feel January’s gas-driven rise less.

Good for a fix: gas-heated homes on a standard variable tariff who want a known price through winter, and anyone whose budget can’t absorb a £20 to £30 a month rise from January.

Consider waiting: if neither a tracker nor a fix beats your current deal once exit fees are added, or you’re already fixed into 2027 at a lower rate.

Important conditions

• Trackers rise with the cap. A £50 discount on a £2,084 cap is still £2,034 a year.
• Exit fees: £25 per fuel to leave E.ON Next Pledge for another supplier; £75 per fuel on Octopus 18M Fixed. Check British Gas’s terms for its Fixed Tracker.
• E.ON Next Pledge needs Direct Debit and a smart meter where possible.
• Our Octopus figure is an average of published regional rates, not a quote. London averages about £1,768; the highest region is about £1,859.
• Electricity VAT is 0% from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027 on all tariffs, fixed or variable.
• Fixed prices can change before Ofgem’s November announcement, because suppliers price new fixes from the same wholesale market.

Should you fix before January 2027?

If you use gas for heating and your quote for an 18-month fix comes in at or below your current yearly cost, fixing protects you from every January forecast we’ve seen. The trade-off is that you pay about £66 a year more than today’s cap for the next few months, and you lose out if wholesale gas falls sharply before the November decision.

A tracker suits you if you’d rather keep a guaranteed discount and accept January’s rise. Some forecasts point to the cap easing later in 2027, and a tracker would follow it down without an exit fee to move within E.ON Next. Our January 2027 price cap forecast guide compares the forecasts in full, and our Octopus Tracker guide covers trackers that follow wholesale prices rather than the cap.

Switching steps

1. Find your annual usage in kWh on your latest statement or app.
2. Check your current tariff and end date. If you’re fixed, most suppliers let you leave without a fee in the last 49 days.
3. Get quotes for your postcode for both a below-cap tracker and at least two fixes, using the same usage and payment method.
4. Add exit fees on both your current and new deal.
5. Switch. Your new supplier handles the move, usually within a few working days, and your supply isn’t interrupted.
6. Take a meter reading on switch day so your final bill is accurate.

Final decision card

Choose a below-cap tracker (E.ON Next Pledge or British Gas Fixed Tracker) if you want a guaranteed discount on the cap and can live with January’s rise.
Choose an 18-month fix (Octopus 18M Fixed, about £1,789) if you heat with gas and want protection from the £1,999 to £2,084 January forecasts.
Wait for 25 November if nothing beats your current deal once exit fees are counted.

FAQ

Which energy tariffs are below the price cap in October 2026?

As of 9 October 2026, E.ON Next Pledge and British Gas’s Fixed Tracker both guarantee prices below the Ofgem cap. E.ON Next says Pledge saves about £50 a year at average use, and British Gas says its Fixed Tracker saves up to £60. Some fixed deals may also come in below the cap for your postcode, so compare quotes too.

Is fixed or tracker better for January 2027?

It depends on where the cap lands. If January’s cap reaches the forecast £1,999 to £2,084, an 18-month fix at about £1,789 would cost less than a tracker from January. If the cap stays nearer today’s £1,723, a tracker is cheaper.

Will a below-cap tracker go up in January?

Yes. Below-cap trackers follow the Ofgem cap, so if the cap rises in January your rates rise too. You keep the discount, about £50 to £60 a year at typical use, but you don’t avoid the increase.

How much is Octopus 18M Fixed?

Our average of Octopus’s published rates across 14 regions on 9 October 2026 is about £1,789 a year for typical use, ranging from about £1,728 to £1,859 by region. It has a £75 exit fee per fuel. Get a quote for your postcode to see your exact price.

What are the exit fees?

E.ON Next Pledge charges £25 per fuel if you leave for another supplier and nothing to move to another E.ON Next tariff. Octopus 18M Fixed charges £75 per fuel. Check British Gas’s terms for its Fixed Tracker before you sign.

When will Ofgem confirm the January 2027 cap?

Ofgem will announce it by 25 November 2026, and it applies from 1 January to 31 March 2027. Until then, the £1,999 to £2,084 figures are forecasts from Cornwall Insight and uSwitch’s average of supplier predictions.

How we checked these figures

We took the cap from Ofgem, the Pledge terms from E.ON Next’s tariff page, the Fixed Tracker claim from British Gas’s tariffs page, and the January forecasts from Cornwall Insight and uSwitch. We worked out the Octopus figure ourselves from Octopus’s published rates for each region at typical use, then averaged them. We left out any figure we couldn’t trace to the supplier or forecaster. SwitchSquid is a comparison site, not an energy supplier, and nothing here is personal financial advice.

Sources

• Ofgem, price cap 1 October to 31 December 2026: ofgem.gov.uk
• E.ON Next, Next Pledge: eonnext.com
• British Gas, gas and electricity tariffs: britishgas.co.uk
• Octopus Energy, Octopus 18M Fixed published rates (9 October 2026 version): api.octopus.energy
• uSwitch, energy price cap guide (supplier predictions as of 8 October 2026): uswitch.com
• Cornwall Insight, January forecast (30 September 2026): cornwall-insight.com

Related guides: cheapest fixed energy deals for October, fixed versus standard variable and energy exit fees. This guide covers household energy only.

Affiliate disclosure: SwitchSquid may earn a commission if you switch through MoneySuperMarket. It doesn’t change the figures we quote or the price you pay.