Last updated: Saturday 22 August 2026 (Europe/London). Next update: we will update this page on Wednesday 26 August 2026 when Ofgem publishes the official 1 October–31 December 2026 cap. Until then, every October figure below is a forecast, not a decision.
By [Named energy lead], Switch Squid Ltd Reviewed by [Named reviewer]
I am Switch. I compare energy deals for a living, and I get twitchy when the same bill is quoted as £1,663 in one tab and £1,862 in another. That is not two different winters. That is two different “typical homes” being used to describe one cap. If you only remember one thing from this piece, make it that.
Ofgem will announce the energy price cap October 2026 by 26 August 2026. The cap then runs from 1 October to 31 December 2026. The assessment window Ofgem uses to lock in the wholesale and other inputs closed on 18 August 2026. The maths is now sitting on the regulator’s desk. Forecasters are not waiting politely.
This is the last cap of 2026. It lands on the same day VAT on household electricity falls to 0%. Wholesale prices have been ugly enough that the VAT cut will not cancel the rise. I will walk through the forecasts, the TDCV mess, the VAT cut, and a simple decision tree: already fixed, on a standard variable tariff, on prepay, or coming off a deal before October.
If you want the longer “does the cap even do what people think it does” argument, I already wrote that here: Does the energy price cap work?. If you want the winter fix-versus-variable call, start here: Fixed vs variable, winter 2026. To compare live deals for your actual usage, use the energy compare hub.
What we know (and what we don't)
Certain
Ofgem will publish the October–December 2026 default tariff cap by 26 August 2026. It said so on its July–September cap page, and it left itself room to publish earlier if it has to.
The current cap, 1 July–30 September 2026, is the one already in force. Ofgem’s published Direct Debit unit rates for a typical dual-fuel customer are 26.11p/kWh electricity (standing charge 57.19p/day) and 7.33p/kWh gas (standing charge 29.04p/day). Those rates include VAT at 5%. Ofgem said that quarter was a 13% rise for a typical Direct Debit dual-fuel household, driven by wholesale gas and the Middle East conflict.
From 1 July 2026, Ofgem’s medium Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCVs) are 2,500 kWh electricity and 9,500 kWh gas. The old medium values were 2,700 kWh and 11,500 kWh.
From 1 October 2026, VAT on domestic electricity is 0%. Gas VAT is a separate matter; do not assume the cut applies to both fuels.
Not certain
The official October headline bill. Nobody outside Ofgem has that number until Wednesday.
What you will actually pay. The cap is a maximum unit rate and standing charge, not a promise that your home costs £1,700-and-something. Use more, pay more.
I will not quote SwitchSquid homepage “typical bill” figures in this article. We have had the same TDCV collision on our own pages that the rest of the market has: old-assumption totals sitting next to new-assumption totals. That is the story, not a third unofficial number.
October 2026 forecasts
These are forecasts. They are not Ofgem. They were published after the assessment window closed, which is why they are the last useful ones before the announcement. They can still be wrong. Methodology tweaks, rounding, regional averaging and how each house treats VAT can shift a few pounds.
Forecast table (not official)
Source | Forecast typical bill | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Cornwall Insight (new TDCV, 19 Aug) | £1,729 | £1,663 | about 4% |
Cornwall Insight (old TDCV, 19 Aug) | £1,941 | £1,862 | same rise, bigger total |
British Gas via uSwitch | £1,730 | £1,663 | — |
EDF via uSwitch | £1,721 | £1,663 | — |
E.ON Next via uSwitch | £1,725 | £1,663 | — |
uSwitch average (20 Aug) | £1,725 | £1,663 | 3.7% |
Cornwall also published a fuel split on the new TDCV: electricity £866.63, gas £862.68. On the old TDCV: electricity £919.70, gas £1,020.99. Totals may not add perfectly because they round.
Cornwall’s forecast unit rates and standing charges (national average, dual fuel, Direct Debit; they flag that these do not include some variances they discuss in the note):
Fuel | Standing charge | Unit rate |
|---|---|---|
Electricity | £0.55 per day | 26.57p/kWh |
Gas | £0.31 per day | 7.90p/kWh |
Treat those as Cornwall’s model, not as Wednesday’s official pence.
Cornwall’s own explanation for the rise is not subtle: wholesale prices for the coming winter at their highest in almost four years, US–Iran conflict still feeding uncertainty, European storage refill looking thin, a heatwave lifting gas-for-power demand, Norwegian outages, strong Asian LNG demand, plus small Ofgem methodology changes (EBITDA/indexation, unidentified gas, and quarterly consumption profiles that put more assumed use into Q4 and Q1). Dr Craig Lowrey’s line is the one I agree with: temporary VAT relief does not change the fact that GB bills still move when gas markets thousands of miles away sneeze.
uSwitch’s Richard Neudegg, speaking on 20 August, is already looking past October. He said households waiting for a last-minute reprieve are likely to be disappointed, that a third consecutive hike is predicted for January 2027, and that standard gas prices are likely to be “a staggering 26% higher than they were last year.” That 26% is his comparison, not an Ofgem statistic I have independently rebuilt. I am passing it on as labelled comment, not as my own arithmetic.
Cornwall’s January view, as of 19 August, also points to a further rise, with the honest caveat that wholesale volatility means that view will move several times before the November announcement. I am not going to invent a January pound figure. They did not put one in the press release I re-read.
Why some sites say £1,663 and others £1,862
This is the bit that makes people think journalists cannot add up.
The price cap is a set of maximum unit rates and standing charges. The “typical annual bill” is those rates multiplied by an assumed year’s use, plus standing charges, plus VAT where it still applies. Change the assumed use, and the headline bill changes even if the pence on your statement do not.
From 1 July 2026 Ofgem cut the medium assumption:
Electricity (medium) | Gas (medium) | |
|---|---|---|
Old TDCV | 2,700 kWh | 11,500 kWh |
New TDCV (from 1 July 2026) | 2,500 kWh | 9,500 kWh |
So the same July–September cap is often written as:
£1,663 on the new typical home
£1,862 on the old typical home
Cornwall’s October forecast does the same trick: £1,729 new versus £1,941 old. That is why a lazy “bills are coming down” take from July was mostly a smaller notional house, not a gift from the market. This is Money put it bluntly on 19 August: energy has not got cheaper; households have changed behaviour, and the benchmark followed.
If you still heat a draughty three-bed like it is 2019, the new “typical” number is not your number. Compare unit rates, or better, compare a quote built on your kWh. The compare hub is there for that, not for arguing about a fictional average family.
I am not going to pretend SwitchSquid has been immune. When one page still talks in old-TDCV pounds and another has moved to new-TDCV pounds, you get a spread that looks like we cannot decide if the cap is £1,641, £1,738 or £1,862. Those clashes are a labelling problem. They are not three official caps.
VAT at 0% on electricity from 1 October
Two things happen on 1 October: the new cap period starts, and VAT on household electricity goes to 0%.
Cornwall’s view is that wholesale swings outweigh the VAT saving, which is why their forecast still rises even after the policy. uSwitch’s “what we know” piece (updated 20 August) says the cut will slightly mitigate the probable rise, and puts the typical saving at an average of about £45 a year. That £45 is uSwitch’s estimate, not a statutory rebate and not a figure I have independently modelled. Your saving scales with how much electricity you use, not with a press-release average. Gas is still sitting under the old VAT treatment unless the law says otherwise — and this cut is electricity.
If you are on Economy 7 or another multi-rate meter, the electricity VAT cut still matters; the “typical dual-fuel Direct Debit” headline still may not. Check the rates, not the poster.
Should you fix before 26 August?
I do not get paid more if you panic-fix on a Saturday night. I also will not tell you to sit on an SVT out of superstition.
What a fix actually does. A fixed tariff locks the unit rates and standing charges you agreed, for the term you agreed, as long as you stay inside the contract. The October cap moving does not rewrite that contract. Exit fees are real. Read them.
What the cap actually does. It caps default (standard variable) tariffs, including most people who have not chosen a deal in over a year. It is not a government gift. It is not a bill freeze. Prepay has its own cap track; it is not “uncapped”, but it is not the Direct Debit headline either.
What the market was saying on 19–20 August. uSwitch said there were fixes around £100 below the predicted cap rise (their wording). This is Money, same week, quoted Neudegg saying the best fixes undercut the Cornwall prediction by around 12%, with the cheapest then at £1,522 for a typical home. That £1,522 is a 19 August 2026 snapshot in that article. Deals die. I will not pretend it is still on sale as I type. If it is gone, the principle stands: you compare today’s cheapest credible fix to your SVT rates, not to a newspaper average from last Wednesday.
Cornwall’s October unit-rate forecast (26.57p electricity, 7.90p gas) sits above Ofgem’s current published cap rates (26.11p and 7.33p). That is the direction of travel the models agree on. A fix only wins if its rates, fees and term beat the SVT you would otherwise sit on — including the risk Neudegg and Cornwall both flag that January may not be kind.
For the fuller winter framing, use fixed vs variable, winter 2026. For a sense of where the kWh actually go in the house, what your appliances cost to run is more useful than another forecast table.
Decision tree
Already on a fixed deal that runs past 1 October 2026
Do nothing because of the cap. Your rates do not move with Ofgem’s press release. Note the end date. If it lands in the autumn or winter, start comparing before you roll onto the SVT by default. Default is how people accidentally buy the cap.
On a standard variable tariff (price-capped default)
You are the person the October number is about. If forecasts in the £1,721–£1,730 range are even roughly right on the new TDCV, the Direct Debit typical bill goes up from the £1,663-style headline. That is not a reason to fix a bad tariff. It is a reason to run a comparison on your usage this weekend, then again on Wednesday if you like confirmation theatre. If a decent fix is clearly cheaper than your current rates and you can live with the exit fee, waiting for a Wednesday PDF rarely saves you money. If the cheapest fix is only a few pounds below a forecast that might miss, waiting is not cowardice.
Prepay, and not on a fixed tariff
You are under the prepayment cap, not the Direct Debit poster. The direction of wholesale costs is the same story. The pounds will not match the table above. Check whether your supplier (or another) will let you fix on prepay or move payment type without wrecking the arrangement you actually use. Do not switch payment method just to chase a headline.
Deal ending before October — or in October
This is the sharp one. If you roll off in September you can spend a month on the current cap and then the new one. If you roll off in October you land straight on the new default. Get quotes now. If a fix you like is available, the cost of missing it is usually larger than the joy of being able to say you waited for Ofgem. Put a reminder for 26 August anyway, so you can sanity-check the official pence against what you signed.
Cannot pay
That is not a switching article. Tell the supplier. They have to engage. The cap does not pause arrears.
What happens on 26 August
When Ofgem publishes, I will replace the forecast table with the official typical bills on both TDCVs if they give them, plus the official unit rates and standing charges for Direct Debit, and I will say plainly whether Cornwall and the supplier cluster were high, low or close. I will not quietly rewrite this piece to look like I always knew.
Switch Squid Ltd (company number 13332631) is based in Leamington Spa. We compare. We are not Ofgem, Cornwall Insight, or your supplier.
FAQ
When is the energy price cap October 2026 announced?
Ofgem says the levels for 1 October to 31 December 2026 will be published by 26 August 2026. It may publish earlier. The cap then applies for that quarter only. The next one after that is the January–March 2027 cap, which Ofgem will set later in the autumn (Cornwall refers to a November announcement).
Is £1,729 the official October price cap?
No. £1,729 is Cornwall Insight’s 19 August 2026 forecast on the new typical consumption values. uSwitch’s cluster of supplier forecasts averages £1,725. The official figure is whatever Ofgem publishes by 26 August.
Why do some sites still say the current cap is £1,862?
They are using the old medium TDCV (2,700 kWh electricity, 11,500 kWh gas). On the new TDCV the same July–September cap is commonly cited as £1,663. The underlying unit rates are the ones Ofgem published, not the marketing total.
Does the price cap apply if I am already on a fixed tariff?
No. Fixed rates stay as contracted. The cap applies to default / standard variable tariffs, including many prepay defaults.
How much will the electricity VAT cut save?
uSwitch has put a typical figure at about £45 a year. That is their estimate. It depends on your electricity use. It does not automatically cut gas by the same logic.
Should I wait until 26 August to switch?
Only if you do not already have a fix that clearly beats your SVT. The assessment window is closed; waiting will not change the wholesale inputs Ofgem already collected. It will change whether today’s cheap fix is still there.
Will the cap rise again in January 2027?
Cornwall Insight’s 19 August commentary points to a further rise but says the view will shift. uSwitch’s Richard Neudegg has already talked about a third consecutive hike. Both are forecasts. January is not priced in as fact.
I use much more (or less) than 2,500 kWh / 9,500 kWh. Are these headlines useless?
They are useful as a market signal. They are useless as your bill. Price your own kWh.
Sources
Ofgem, “Changes to energy price cap between 1 July and 30 September 2026” (published 27 May 2026; includes the 26 August 2026 publication date for the October–December cap, the 13% July rise, and current Direct Debit unit rates): https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/news/changes-energy-price-cap-between-1-july-and-30-september-2026
Ofgem, Review of typical domestic consumption values (decision; new medium TDCVs from 1 July 2026): https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2026-05/Review%20of%20typical%20domestic%20consumption%20values%20decision.pdf
Ofgem, Summary of changes to the energy price cap 1 July–30 September 2026 (revised TDCV letter): https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2026-06/Summary-of-changes-to-energy-price-cap-1-July-to-30-september-2026-revised-TDCV.pdf
Cornwall Insight, “Energy Bills Forecast to Hit Three-Year High”, 19 August 2026: https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press-releases/energy-bills-forecast-to-hit-three-year-high/
uSwitch, “Energy price cap October 2026: final predictions”, updated 20 August 2026: https://www.uswitch.com/gas-electricity/news/energy-price-cap-october-2026-final-predictions/
uSwitch, “Energy price cap October 2026: what we know so far”, updated 20 August 2026: https://www.uswitch.com/gas-electricity/news/energy-price-cap-october-2026-what-we-know-so-far/
This is Money, “Energy bills forecast to rise to £1,729 in October: Should you fix your tariff?”, updated 19 August 2026: https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-16063433/energy-price-cap-october-prediction-cornwall-insight-you-fix-now.html
