Octopus Flexible tariff October 2026: regional rates vs fixing before the January cap

Last updated: Wednesday 7 October 2026 (Europe/London).
Next update: when Ofgem announces the January to March 2027 price cap (due by 25 November 2026), or when Octopus changes its Flexible or fixed prices.
By: Switch Editorial Team, Switch Squid Ltd

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As of 7 October 2026, Flexible Octopus works out at about £1,716 a year for a typical dual-fuel home paying by Direct Debit, just under Ofgem’s £1,723 price cap and around £41 a year cheaper than Octopus’s new 18-month fix. The catch is timing: Flexible moves with the cap, and current forecasts put the January 2027 cap at between £1,999 and £2,074. So Flexible is the cheaper place to sit this autumn, but a fix only starts to pay if January’s rise arrives as forecast. SwitchSquid sets out the regional prices and the maths below; we may earn a commission if you compare or switch through our links.

Sources: Octopus Energy — Flexible Octopus tariff data, Octopus Energy — fixed or flexible?, Ofgem — price cap for 1 October to 31 December 2026, Cornwall Insight — January forecast and uSwitch — price cap guide.

What is the Octopus Flexible tariff?

Flexible Octopus is Octopus Energy’s standard variable tariff. It has no end date, no contract term and no exit fees, so you can leave or move to another tariff whenever you like. Octopus describes it as a tariff whose prices “fluctuate with the cost of supply and usually update every 3 months”, which in practice means it changes on the same quarterly timetable as Ofgem’s price cap.

Because it is a default tariff, Flexible is covered by the price cap. The cap does not limit your total bill; it limits the unit rate and the daily standing charge a supplier can charge on a standard variable tariff. Octopus says it is the only major supplier whose prices have been consistently below the price cap. Our own check of its October to December 2026 rates fits that: a simple average across its 14 regions comes out a few pounds under the £1,723 headline figure.

If you joined Octopus without choosing a fixed deal, or your fixed term finished and you did not pick a new one, you are almost certainly on Flexible now. That is not a bad place to be. The question this autumn is whether staying put through the winter is still the cheapest option once January’s expected rise is taken into account.

Flexible Octopus rates for October to December 2026

Ofgem’s cap for 1 October to 31 December 2026 is £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit, based on 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas. The national average capped rates are 26.32p per kWh plus 54.83p a day for electricity and 7.97p per kWh plus 29.68p a day for gas. Electricity carries 0% VAT from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027, so the electricity figures below include no VAT, while gas includes 5% VAT.

Octopus’s Flexible electricity unit rates range from 25.36p in the East Midlands to 27.86p in Merseyside and North Wales. Standing charges vary far more, from 41.39p a day in London to 67.27p a day in Merseyside and North Wales. That spread is why two households with identical usage can pay over £130 a year apart on the same tariff.

Flexible vs Octopus fixed tariffs by region (checked 7 October 2026)

The table shows Octopus’s published Direct Debit rates for Flexible, and the yearly cost of Flexible, the Octopus 18M Fixed and the Octopus 12M Fixed tariffs that went on sale on 7 October 2026. Yearly figures are our own arithmetic at Ofgem’s typical usage of 2,500 kWh electricity and 9,500 kWh gas. They are illustrations, not quotes.

Region	Flexible electricity unit rate	Flexible electricity standing charge (per day)	Flexible gas unit rate	Flexible gas standing charge (per day)	Flexible yearly cost	18M Fixed yearly cost	12M Fixed yearly cost
Eastern England	26.61p	50.55p	7.91p	28.38p	£1,705	£1,729	£1,790
East Midlands	25.36p	50.20p	7.82p	28.46p	£1,664	£1,695	£1,760
London	26.60p	41.39p	8.15p	29.24p	£1,697	£1,717	£1,786
Merseyside and North Wales	27.86p	67.27p	7.91p	29.12p	£1,799	£1,855	£1,919
West Midlands	25.60p	56.27p	7.90p	28.75p	£1,701	£1,735	£1,798
North East England	25.46p	60.80p	7.92p	28.84p	£1,716	£1,759	£1,816
North West England	26.49p	44.21p	7.86p	28.85p	£1,676	£1,734	£1,790
Southern England	26.47p	46.30p	8.17p	28.20p	£1,710	£1,743	£1,811
South East England	26.88p	51.05p	8.05p	28.30p	£1,726	£1,762	£1,826
South Wales	26.55p	54.44p	8.09p	29.00p	£1,737	£1,778	£1,842
South West England	26.58p	54.49p	8.12p	28.35p	£1,738	£1,789	£1,855
Yorkshire	25.60p	60.89p	7.90p	28.81p	£1,718	£1,760	£1,822
South Scotland	26.11p	60.69p	7.87p	28.93p	£1,728	£1,774	£1,829
North Scotland	26.35p	54.15p	7.87p	28.92p	£1,710	£1,768	£1,820

Across the 14 regions, a simple average puts Flexible at about £1,716 a year, the 18M Fixed at about £1,757 and the 12M Fixed at about £1,819. That simple average is not the same as Ofgem’s weighted national figure, which is why it sits a few pounds away from £1,723. The 18M Fixed carries a £75 exit fee per fuel and the 12M Fixed a £50 exit fee per fuel, according to Octopus’s tariff descriptions. Flexible has none.

What January 2027 could mean for Flexible customers

Flexible is cheaper than Octopus’s fixes today, but only until the cap changes on 1 January. Cornwall Insight forecast on 30 September 2026 that the cap will rise by 16% to about £1,999 a year for a typical dual-fuel household, an increase of £276, mainly because of disruption to gas supplies linked to the conflict in the Middle East. uSwitch’s price cap guide put the average of the forecasts it tracks at £2,074 as of 1 October. Ofgem will confirm the real figure by 25 November 2026.

If Flexible moved in line with Cornwall’s forecast, our arithmetic puts a typical home at roughly £1,990 a year equivalent from January, around £230 a year more than the average 18M Fixed. Over a single quarter that is roughly £58, and more in practice because a home uses more gas between January and March than in an average month. If the rise is smaller than forecast, or prices fall back by the spring, the gap shrinks or disappears.

That is the real trade-off. Staying on Flexible keeps a typical home about £10 better off over the October to December quarter and leaves you free to move at any time. Fixing now costs a little more this quarter but protects you if January’s rise arrives as forecast. Our January 2027 price cap forecast guide follows the predictions in more detail.

Should you stay on Flexible Octopus or fix?

Stay on Flexible for now if you would rather keep full flexibility, you expect to move home in the next year, or you want to wait for Ofgem’s November announcement before committing. There is no exit fee, so you can still fix later. The risk is that fixed prices tend to rise ahead of an expected cap increase, so a fix offered in late November may cost more than one offered today.

Consider fixing if a steady monthly bill matters to you through the winter, or a fix in your region comes in close to your current Flexible cost. In some regions, such as London and Eastern England, the 18M Fixed is only about £20 to £25 a year more than Flexible today. In others, such as Merseyside and North Wales or North West England, the gap is closer to £55 to £60.

Look beyond Octopus. Octopus’s own fixes are a useful yardstick, but they are not the whole market. Comparing fixed tariffs across suppliers for your postcode and usage is the only way to see whether any deal beats your current Flexible cost. Our guide on whether to fix your energy deal walks through the wider decision, and if you have a smart meter and can shift usage, our Octopus Tracker guide covers the daily-priced alternative.

How to switch from Flexible to a fixed tariff

1. Find your usage. Your annual kWh for electricity and gas is on your bill or in your Octopus account. Using your real figures rather than the typical ones gives a far more accurate comparison.
2. Note your current rates. Write down your Flexible unit rates and standing charges for your region so you can compare like for like.
3. Compare fixed deals for your postcode. Look at the yearly cost including standing charges, the length of the fix and the exit fees.
4. Switch. Moving from Flexible costs nothing because there are no exit fees. If you move to another supplier, switching usually takes about five working days and your supply is not interrupted.
5. Take a meter reading on switch day. It helps make sure your final Flexible bill and your first bill on the new tariff are both accurate.

Fit summary

• Good for staying on Flexible Octopus: households who want no tie-in, people likely to move home soon, and anyone happy to accept January’s change in exchange for paying slightly less this autumn.
• Consider a fixed tariff instead: households who want a predictable bill through the winter and spring, especially where a fix in their region costs little more than Flexible today.
• Check carefully if: you have Economy 7, a prepayment meter or a heat pump, as the typical figures in this guide are for single-rate Direct Debit customers.

Important conditions

• Flexible Octopus and fixed tariff rates are Octopus’s published Direct Debit prices, checked on 7 October 2026. Prices can change.
• Yearly costs are our arithmetic at 2,500 kWh electricity and 9,500 kWh gas, not quotes. Your bill depends on your usage and region.
• January 2027 figures are forecasts from Cornwall Insight and uSwitch. Ofgem confirms the actual cap by 25 November 2026.
• Fixed tariffs carry exit fees per fuel; Octopus lists £75 per fuel on the 18M Fixed and £50 per fuel on the 12M Fixed.
• Comparison results depend on your postcode and may not include every supplier or every tariff.
• We may earn a commission if you compare or switch through our links.

Final decision card

Want no tie-in and plan to review again in late November → stay on Flexible Octopus and set a reminder for Ofgem’s announcement.
Want a steady bill through the winter → compare fixes for your postcode now, before prices move further.
A fix in your region costs only a few pounds more than Flexible → fixing now buys protection for very little.

FAQ

Is Octopus Flexible cheaper than the price cap?

Slightly, on our figures. Octopus says its prices have been consistently below the price cap, and a simple average of its 14 regional Flexible prices works out at about £1,716 a year for typical usage, against Ofgem’s £1,723 cap. Your own cost depends on your region and how much energy you use.

Does Flexible Octopus have exit fees?

No. Flexible Octopus has no contract term and no exit fees, so you can switch tariff or supplier at any time. Exit fees only apply if you sign up to a fixed tariff and leave before it ends.

How often do Flexible Octopus prices change?

Octopus says Flexible prices usually update every three months, in line with Ofgem’s quarterly price cap. The next change is expected on 1 January 2027. Octopus gives customers notice before prices change.

Will Flexible Octopus go up in January 2027?

It is likely if the price cap rises. Cornwall Insight forecasts a 16% rise to about £1,999 a year for a typical home, and uSwitch put the average forecast at £2,074 as of 1 October 2026. Ofgem will confirm the January cap by 25 November 2026.

Is it better to fix or stay on Flexible Octopus?

Today, Flexible is cheaper than Octopus’s own fixes, by about £41 a year against the 18M Fixed on typical usage. A fix makes sense if you value a predictable bill and expect January’s rise to happen as forecast. If you would rather wait, Flexible lets you fix later without any exit fee.

Why does Flexible Octopus cost more in some regions?

Network costs differ across Great Britain’s 14 regions, so unit rates and especially standing charges vary. The electricity standing charge on Flexible ranges from 41.39p a day in London to 67.27p a day in Merseyside and North Wales. That alone adds about £95 a year to a bill in the most expensive region.

How do I know if I am on Flexible Octopus?

Check your latest bill or the tariff section of your Octopus account. If you never chose a fixed deal, or a fixed term finished without you picking a new one, you will usually be on Flexible. Your bill also shows your current unit rates and standing charges.