Should You Fix Energy Now? The 2026 Price Cap Guide

Last updated: Tuesday 3 November 2026

In short: If you are on a standard variable tariff, the default rate most people move onto when a fixed deal finishes, your rates change every time Ofgem resets the price cap. The cap for 1 October to 31 December 2026 is £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel home paying by Direct Debit, £60 more than the £1,663 for July to September (Ofgem, 26 August 2026). The next cap, for 1 January to 31 March 2027, is due to be announced by 25 November 2026. Ofgem says some fixed tariffs are available at £100 or more below the October cap, but only a quote for your postcode and usage tells you what you would pay.

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This guide explains what the cap is, who it covers, why the VAT change makes October hard to compare with the summer, and how to decide whether to fix, switch or stay before the cap changes again.

What Ofgem set for 1 October to 31 December 2026

On 26 August 2026, Ofgem published the cap for the last quarter of 2026. For a typical dual-fuel home paying by Direct Debit and using 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas a year, the bill is £1,723. That is about 4%, or £60 a year (roughly £5 a month), more than the July to September figure of £1,663.

The Great Britain Direct Debit averages are (Ofgem):

• Electricity: 26.32p/kWh and 54.83p a day, with 0% VAT from 1 October 2026 to 30 June 2027 (HMRC Notice 701/19).

• Gas: 7.97p/kWh and 29.68p a day, with 5% VAT included.

Ofgem says costs cannot be compared directly with earlier periods because of the electricity VAT change, and that the typical bill would have been around £45 higher without the cut. The VAT cut also applies to fixed tariffs.

Typical bills by payment method for the same period (Ofgem summary of changes): Direct Debit £1,723, standard credit £1,861, prepayment £1,678, and Economy 7 Direct Debit £1,046 (an electricity-only figure on a different meter, not a cheaper dual-fuel bill).

Staying on the cap vs fixing

Use this as a guide. Ofgem’s comment that fixes are available at £100 or more below the October cap describes the market in general, not your postcode, so always get a quote.

Why the cap date matters, and what it does not mean

The cap limits default unit rates and standing charges; it does not mean every home pays £1,723. If you use more energy, live in a region with higher standing charges or pay by standard credit, your bill will be different.

Fixing before the next cap change means locking in rates for a set period so they do not move when the cap does. Switching takes a few working days, so leave time. It does not mean every fixed deal is cheaper, and until Ofgem announces the January to March 2027 cap, due by 25 November 2026, any figure for January is a forecast, not a decision.

Fixing before 25 November: what the forecasts say

Ofgem will announce the cap for 1 January to 31 March 2027 by 25 November 2026. Until then, every January figure is a forecast. uSwitch’s average of the British Gas, EDF and E.ON Next forecasts is £2,207 a year for a typical dual-fuel home paying by Direct Debit, and £2,337 for April to June 2027, based on supplier predictions as of 2 November 2026. That compares with £1,723 under the current cap.

A forecast rise is a reason to get a quote, not a reason to fix at any price. Fixed tariffs change daily and depend on your region, meter and usage, so compare a quote for your own postcode against what you pay on the cap, including any exit fees. If no fix beats the current cap for you, staying put until Ofgem’s announcement, due by 25 November, is a reasonable choice, because you can still switch after the announcement and before new rates apply on 1 January.

Who should look at this now

• Standard variable or default customers: your rates change with each cap unless you move.

• People whose fixed deal is finishing soon: when a deal finishes you move onto the default tariff, so compare before the end date.

• Prepay and standard credit customers: the typical bills are different (£1,678 and £1,861), but the same applies: a better tariff or payment method can still save money.

• Already fixed with little or no exit fee: you can still compare, but there is no rush.

• Already fixed with a high exit fee: work out whether leaving early saves more than the fee. Often it is cheaper to wait until the deal finishes.

How to decide

1. Check your tariff type in your app, on your bill or with your supplier: fixed or default?

2. Find your last 12 months of usage. Smart meter data is best; estimates are better than assuming you are typical.

3. Get fixed and variable quotes for your postcode. Compare unit rates, standing charges, exit fees and term. Ignore “save £X compared with the cap” claims until you have worked it out at your own kWh.

4. Decide how much certainty you want. Fixing gives you set rates through winter. Staying variable keeps you free to leave if prices fall at the next cap.

5. Allow time to switch. Do not leave it until the day before the cap changes.

VAT, gas and why the rise is smaller than it might be

Gas drove most of the October rise: the average gas unit rate went from 7.33p to 7.97p/kWh. On the electricity side, the average standing charge fell from 57.19p to 54.83p a day and VAT dropped to 0%. Ofgem says higher wholesale gas prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East caused the rise, and that bills remain well below the 2022 peak, when the government capped typical bills at £2,500.

If you heat with gas, you will notice the unit rate rise. If you use mostly or only electricity, the VAT cut does more for you, although the standing charge still applies every day.

Related guides: October 2026 price cap: Ofgem sets £1,723 · VAT on electricity from 1 October 2026 · Economy 7 and the October 2026 cap · should I fix my energy deal

FAQ

What is the energy price cap for October to December 2026?

Ofgem set it at £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel home paying by Direct Debit, using 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas. That is £60 (4%) more than the £1,663 for July to September.

When does the price cap change next?

Ofgem is due to announce the cap for 1 January to 31 March 2027 by 25 November 2026, and the new rates start on 1 January 2027. Until then, any figure for January is a forecast.

Should I fix or stay on a variable tariff?

Fixing gives you set rates for the term; a variable tariff moves with the cap every three months. Compare unit rates, standing charges and exit fees for your usage on the day you decide.

Does the 0% VAT on electricity apply if I fix?

Yes. The 0% VAT on household electricity from 1 October 2026 to 30 June 2027 applies to fixed tariffs as well as variable ones. Gas stays at 5%.

Does this apply in Northern Ireland?

No. Northern Ireland has its own energy regulation, and the Great Britain price cap and 0% VAT on electricity do not apply there.

How often should I check my tariff?

Check when the price cap changes, when a fixed deal is about to finish, or if your usage changes. A deal that was competitive in the spring may not be by the autumn.

What if I am a business customer?

Business energy has no price cap and uses different contracts. Compare business energy quotes rather than using household cap figures.