Ofgem Winter Price Cap 2026: £1,723, Then £1,999?

Last updated: 29 October 2026

What is the Ofgem energy price cap this winter? As of 29 October 2026, the cap for 1 October to 31 December 2026 is £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel home paying by Direct Debit, with electricity at 26.32p per kWh and 54.83p a day, and gas at 7.97p per kWh and 29.68p a day. Ofgem will announce the January to March 2027 level by 25 November 2026, and Cornwall Insight forecasts £1,999, a 16% rise. That makes the next four weeks the time to decide whether to fix or stay on the cap. This SwitchSquid guide shows what the winter cap means for your bills month by month, what forecasters expect next, and how to judge a fixed deal against both. If you compare through the buttons on this page, we may earn a commission; it does not change the price you pay.

Sources: Ofgem, changes to the energy price cap between 1 October and 31 December 2026, Ofgem price cap unit rates and standing charges, Cornwall Insight price cap predictions, Cornwall Insight, 16% rise forecast in January and SwitchInsights forecast round-up, all checked on 29 October 2026.

The winter price cap in numbers: 1 October to 31 December 2026

The price cap does not limit your total bill. It limits the unit rate and daily standing charge a supplier can charge on a standard variable, or default, tariff. The £1,723 headline is what a typical household using gas and electricity and paying by Direct Debit would pay over a year at these rates. Ofgem says that, for that typical household, the October cap was a 4% rise on the summer level.

Two details matter for reading these figures. First, electricity carries no VAT from 1 October 2026, and GOV.UK said on 28 October 2026 that this cut will run until 30 June 2027; Ofgem’s electricity figures exclude VAT and gas includes 5%. Second, these are national averages. Your own rates depend on your region, meter and payment method, which our price cap by region guide sets out. The main cap page, energy price cap explained, has the full background.

What the winter cap means for your bills each month

Because you use far more gas and electricity in winter, the quarter from October to December costs more than a quarter of the annual figure. Here is an illustrative example, using Ofgem’s average rates, for a home that uses 800kWh of electricity and 4,000kWh of gas between October and December.

• Electricity, October to December: 800kWh at 26.32p is £210.56, plus 92 days of standing charge at 54.83p, which is £50.44. Total £261.00.

• Gas, October to December: 4,000kWh at 7.97p is £318.80, plus 92 days at 29.68p, which is £27.31. Total £346.11.

• Winter quarter total: £607.11, or around £202 a month.

If the same home used the same amount between January and March 2027 and the cap moved to Cornwall Insight’s forecast rates, the quarter would cost about £710.04 over 90 days, roughly £103 more. In practice January and February are often colder than October, so many homes will use more, not the same.

Spread over a year, the typical bill at the current cap works out at about £143.58 a month. At £1,999.28 it would be about £166.61 a month, around £23 more. If you pay a fixed monthly Direct Debit, your supplier may review it after the January cap is announced; our guide to Direct Debit recalculations explains how suppliers set the amount.

One change further out: according to GOV.UK, 28 October 2026, the Chancellor will ask Ofgem to remove standing charges from household gas bills in 2027 or as soon as possible after, with the cost moved onto the gas unit rate. Electricity standing charges are not part of that announcement, and the 29.68p a day gas standing charge above still applies until Ofgem makes the change.

When will Ofgem announce the January 2027 price cap?

Ofgem says it will announce the cap for 1 January to 31 March 2027 by 25 November 2026. It has also published the following dates: by 23 February 2027 for April to June 2027, and by 26 May 2027 for July to September 2027. Ofgem notes that it may publish earlier if external events require it.

The wholesale part of the January cap is based on prices traded during an observation window that runs from mid-August to mid-November. Cornwall Insight said on 30 September that the price rises seen in September were “already locked in, making a January increase all but certain”. The final figure can still move, because the remaining weeks of the window are still feeding into it. Our guide on when the next price cap is announced tracks the dates.

What forecasters expect for January to March 2027

Forecasts change as wholesale prices move, so always check the date on any figure you read. These are the latest public forecasts as of 29 October 2026.

• Cornwall Insight: £1,999.28 a year for a typical dual-fuel Direct Debit home, published on 30 September 2026 and based on prices at the close of 28 September. Its page was last updated on 14 October. Cornwall Insight said the rise is largely driven by conflict in the Middle East disrupting gas supplies.

• E.ON Next and ScottishPower: SwitchInsights reported forecasts of £2,065 and £2,077 respectively, as of 7 October 2026.

The direction is consistent: every forecast cited in this guide points to a higher cap in January than in December. How much higher is the open question, and that is what decides whether a fixed deal is worth taking. For a deeper look at the numbers, read our January 2027 price cap forecast guide.

Fix or stay on the cap this winter?

A fixed tariff locks in your unit rates and standing charges for the length of the deal, usually 12 months. It protects you from a rise in January, but if wholesale prices fall later, you may pay more than the cap. Use this decision table as a starting point.

The simplest test is arithmetic. Take your yearly kWh for each fuel from your latest bill, multiply by the fixed unit rates and add 365 days of standing charges. Then do the same with the current cap rates and the forecast rates. If the fix costs less than the forecast and not much more than the current cap, it is likely worth taking. Our cheapest fixed energy deals and tracker vs fixed guides go further.

How to keep winter bills down whatever you decide

• Submit meter readings around 31 December if you do not have a working smart meter, so your usage is billed at the right rates. See our guide to meter readings before the January cap change.

• Check you are on the right payment method. Ofgem says you could pay less by changing your tariff or payment type.

• Ask about help if you are struggling. Ofgem says suppliers must help if you tell them you cannot pay, for example with a repayment plan or emergency credit. Our Warm Home Discount and Priority Services Register guides explain the support available.

• Use cheaper-time offers if you have a smart meter. Ofgem points out that some suppliers offer half-price or lower-cost electricity at certain times.

Fit summary

• Consider fixing if: you want certainty through the colder months and can find a fix priced near the current cap.

• Consider staying on the cap if: the fixes available to you cost well above the cap, or you expect to move soon.

• Compare before 25 November: fixed prices offered by suppliers tend to follow wholesale prices, so waiting for the announcement can mean the same information is already priced in.

• Consider alternatives if: you have a smart meter and flexible usage, in which case a tracker or time-of-use tariff may beat both.

Important conditions

• Cap figures are Ofgem’s averages for England, Scotland and Wales on Direct Debit. Northern Ireland has a separate energy market and is not covered by this cap.

• The January 2027 figures are forecasts, not the confirmed cap. Ofgem will announce the confirmed level by 25 November 2026.

• Fixed tariffs often carry exit fees. You can usually switch without paying them in the last 49 days of your deal; see our guide to switching without an exit fee.

• The worked examples use average rates and illustrative usage; your bill depends on your own usage, region and meter.

FAQ

What is the Ofgem price cap this winter?

From 1 October to 31 December 2026, the cap is £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel home on Direct Debit. Electricity is capped at an average of 26.32p per kWh with a 54.83p daily standing charge. Gas is 7.97p per kWh with a 29.68p daily standing charge.

When is the next energy price cap announced?

Ofgem will announce the cap for 1 January to 31 March 2027 by 25 November 2026. The following announcements are due by 23 February 2027 and 26 May 2027. Ofgem may publish earlier if it needs to.

Will energy bills go up in January 2027?

Forecasts point to a rise. Cornwall Insight expects the cap to reach £1,999.28 a year for a typical home, up about 16% from £1,723. The confirmed figure will not be known until Ofgem’s announcement.

Should I fix my energy now or wait until the announcement?

If you can find a fix priced close to the current cap, fixing before 25 November can protect you from the forecast January rise. If the fixes available to you cost much more than the cap, compare their yearly cost with the £1,999 forecast first. Check exit fees before you sign.

Does the price cap limit my total energy bill?

No. The cap limits the unit rates and standing charges on default tariffs, not your total bill. If you use more energy than a typical home, you will pay more than £1,723 a year.

Is there VAT on electricity this winter?

No VAT is charged on household electricity from 1 October 2026, and Ofgem’s electricity cap rates already reflect this. GOV.UK said on 28 October 2026 that the VAT cut will run until 30 June 2027. Gas still carries 5% VAT.

Does the price cap apply in Northern Ireland?

No. The Ofgem price cap covers England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland has its own energy market and regulator.

Final decision card

This winter’s cap is £1,723 a year for a typical home until 31 December 2026, with electricity at 26.32p and gas at 7.97p per kWh. Forecasts point to around £1,999 from January, and Ofgem confirms the figure by 25 November. Compare fixed deals against both numbers now, and if a fix close to the current cap is available for your postcode, it is worth serious thought. Prefer a hand? Ask Squid AI to talk you through your options.